Groundwater system is a complex and open system, which is affected by natural conditions and human activities. Natural hydrological processes is conceptualized through relatively simple flow governing equations in groundwater models. Moreover, observation data is always limited in field hydrogeological conditions. Therefore, the predictive results of groundwater simulation often deviate from true values, which is attribute to the uncertainty of groundwater numerical simulation. According to the process of system simulation, the uncertainty sources of groundwater numerical simulation can be divided into model parameters, conceptual model and observation data uncertainties. In addition, the uncertainty stemmed from boundary conditions is sometimes refered as scenario uncertainty. In this paper, the origination and category of groundwater modeling uncertainty are analyzed. The recent progresses on the methods of groundwater modeling uncertainty analysis are reivewed. Furthermore, the researches on the comprehensive analysis of uncertainty sources, and the predictive uncertainty of model outputs are discussed. Finally, several prospects on the deveolpment of groundwater modeling uncetainty analysis are proposed.
A new method is proposed to adaptively determine the threshold for wavelet analysis by combined sample entropy...
Dong Wang1 Xiaosan Shang2 Hao Ding1 Shicheng Wang 3 Zhenlong Wang2 1Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, State Key La- boratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, P.R. China
In this study, the 54-year （1950 to 2003） monthly runoff series from February, April, August, and November, as well as the annual runoff series, measured at both Huayuankou and Lijin hydrological stations were chosen as representative data, and the continuous wavelet transform （CWT） was applied to analyze the impacts of human activities on the runoff regime of the middle and lower Yellow River. A point of change in 1970 was first determined, and the observed series before 1970 were considered natural runoff while those after 1970 were restored according to linear trends. Then, the CWT was applied to both the observed and restored runoff series to reveal their variations at multi-temporal scales, including the five temporal ranges of 1-4, 6-8, 9-12, 16-22, and 22-30 years, and the trend at the temporal scale of 54 years. These analysis results are compared and discussed in detail. In conclusion, because of the impacts of human activities, there have been significant changes in the runoff regime in the middle and lower Yellow River since 1970. The decaying tendency of annual runoff has become more pronounced, and the inner-annual distribution of runoff has changed, but human activities have had little impact on the periodic characteristics of runoff.
Yan-fang SANGDong WANGJi-chun WUQing-ping ZHULing WANG
