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国家自然科学基金(40875048)

作品数:10 被引量:51H指数:4
相关作者:张颖王会军马洁华郎咸梅张刚更多>>
相关机构:中国科学院大气物理研究所中国科学院中国科学院研究生院更多>>
发文基金:国家自然科学基金国家重点基础研究发展计划中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目更多>>
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Impacts of Cumulus Convective Parameterization Schemes on Summer Monsoon Precipitation Simulation over China被引量:11
2011年
By using the Betts-Miller-Janji'c,Grell-Devenyi,and Kain-Fritsch cumulus convective parameterization schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model,long time simulations from 2000 to 2009 are conducted to investigate the impacts of different cumulus convective parameterization schemes on summermonsoon precipitation simulation over China.The results show that all the schemes have the capability to reasonably reproduce the spatial and temporal distributions of summer monsoon precipitation and the corresponding background circulation.The observed north-south shift of monsoon rain belt is also well simulated by the three schemes.Detailed comparison indicates that the Grell-Devenyi scheme gives a better performance than the others.Deficiency in simulated water vapor transport is one possible reason for the precipitation simulation bias.
于恩涛王会军郜永祺孙建奇
A Potential High-Score Scheme for the Prediction of Atlantic Storm Activity被引量:3
2010年
A new empirical approach for the seasonal prediction of annual Atlantic tropical storm number (ATSN) was developed using precipitation and 500 hPa geopotential height data from the preceding January February and April May.The 2.5°×2.5° resolution reanalysis data from both the US National Center for Environmental Prediction/the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) were applied.The model was cross-validated using data from 1979 2002.The ATSN predictions from the two reanalysis models were correlated with the observations with the anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) of 0.79 (NCEP/NCAR) and 0.78 (ECMWF) and the multi-year mean absolute prediction errors (MAE) of 1.85 and 1.76,respectively.When the predictions of the two models were averaged,the ACC increased to 0.90 and the MAE decreased to 1.18,an exceptionally high score.Therefore,this new empirical approach has the potential to improve the operational prediction of the annual tropical Atlantic storm frequency.
WANG Hui-JunQIAN Zhuo-Lei
中国东部冬季降水的动力结合统计预测方法研究被引量:4
2012年
针对中国东部6个气候关键区,首先,通过相关分析指出,冬季降水既与前期气候因子有关,又受同期大气环流的影响。因此,有必要采用动力与统计相结合的方法进行气候预测研究。然后,从实时预测的角度出发,综合考虑前期预测因子的观测信息和具有数值可预测性的同期气候因子的数值模式结果,使用多元线性回归分析方法就各区域平均冬季降水逐一建立了短期气候预测模型,并在预测模型中考虑了模型结果中系统误差的订正。交叉检验分析结果表明,所建立的各区域预测模型普遍具有较好的预测效果,预测优势主要表现在对冬季降水的变化趋势、年际变化、以及异常符号的预测准确率上。就6个区域平均而言,1982—2008年交叉检验结果与实况间的相关系数和距平同号率分别为0.69和78%,表明该预测思想具有可行性。
郎咸梅
关键词:冬季降水多元线性回归分析
北极夏季无海冰状态时的东亚气候变化数值模拟研究被引量:10
2011年
利用CMIP3模式在IPCC SRES A1B情景下对未来气候的预测结果,得到北极夏季无海冰的一种情况,即"free Arctic"。利用相应的海温场和CO2含量驱动全球大气环流模式,模拟北极夏季无海冰时的东亚气候。试验结果表明,夏季北极无海冰时,全球表面气温有不同程度的明显升高,高纬地区升温幅度大于低纬地区,同纬度地区陆地大于海洋。海平面气压场表现为陆地上一致性的降低以及副热带海洋和南极洲边缘部分海域的升高。此外,东亚夏季风环流明显增强,季风区降水明显增多。
马洁华王会军张颖
关键词:海冰数值模拟
欧洲多个耦合气候模式对东亚冬季气候的预测性能研究被引量:3
2012年
在短期气候预测方法中,多模式集合预测作为一种实用方法得到了广泛的研究。利用DEMETER多模式集合预测系统1980—2001年的回报试验,研究了欧洲7个耦合模式对东亚地区(0°—60°N,70°—140°E)冬季大气环流和气候异常的预测效能。研究的气候要素是冬季500hPa高度场、850hPa风场、表面气温场和降水场。集合平均(EM)是最基本的多模式集合构建方法。为了进一步订正模式预测的误差,基于经验正交函数分解进行订正,产生"合成数据集",并利用该数据集进行合成集合平均或合成超级集合(SEM/SSE)。研究表明,东亚地区冬季气候异常的模式预测效能热带高于中高纬度地区,海洋高于内陆。多模式集合平均和合成集合平均或合成超级集合均从整体上对东亚地区冬季气候异常的预测效能有一定程度的提高,体现了其相对于7个单一模式的优势。两类不同的多模式集合方法对预测结果也有一定的影响,其中,合成集合平均或合成超级集合对冬季500hPa高度场、850hPa风场和降水场异常的预测效能优于集合平均;但是对于冬季表面气温场异常的预测,集合平均优于合成集合平均或合成超级集合。
张刚
关键词:短期气候预测多模式集合可预测性
A New Prediction Model for Tropical Storm Frequency over the Western North Pacific Using Observed Winter-Spring Precipitation and Geopotential Height at 500 hPa被引量:1
2011年
A new seasonal prediction model for annual tropical storm numbers (ATSNs) over the western North Pacific was developed using the preceding January-February (JF) and April-May (AM) grid-point data at a resolution of 2.5° × 2.5°. The JF and AM mean precipitation and the AM mean 500-hPa geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphere, together with the JF mean 500-hPa geopotential height in the Southern Hemisphere, were employed to compose the ATSN forecast model via the stepwise multiple linear regression technique. All JF and AM mean data were confined to the Eastern ttemisphere. We established two empirical prediction models for ATSN using the ERA40 reanalysis and NCEP reanalysis datasets, respectively, together with the observed precipitation. The performance of the models was verified by cross-validation. Anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) at 0.78 and 0.74 were obtained via comparison of the retrospective predictions of the two models and the observed ATSNs from 1979 to 2002. The multi-year mean absolute prediction errors were 3.0 and 3.2 for the two models respectively, or roughly 10% of the average ATSN. In practice, the final prediction was made by averaging the ATSN predictions of the two models. This resulted in a higher score, with ACC being further increased to 0.88, and the mean absolute error reduced to 1.92, or 6.13% of the average ATSN.
王会军
关键词:FREQUENCY
A Hybrid Dynamical-Statistical Approach for Predicting Winter Precipitation over Eastern China被引量:8
2011年
Correlation analysis revealed that winter precipitation in six regions of eastern China is closely related not only to preceding climate signals but also to synchronous atmospheric general circulation fields. It is therefore necessary to use a method that combines both dynamical and statistical predictions of winter precipitation over eastern China (hereinafter called the hybrid approach), in this connection, seasonal real-time prediction models for winter precipitation were established for the six regions. The models use both the preceding observations and synchronous numerical predictions through a multivariate linear regression analysis. To improve the prediction accuracy, the systematic error between the original regression model result and the corresponding observation was corrected. Cross-validation analysis and real-time prediction experiments indicate that the prediction models using the hybrid approach can reliably predict the trend, sign, and interannual variation of regionally averaged winter precipitation in the six regions of concern. Averaged over the six target regions, the anomaly correlation coefficient and the rate with the same sign of anomaly between the cross-validation analysis and observation during 1982-2008 are 0.69 and 78%, respectively. This indicates that the hybrid prediction approach adopted in this study is applicable in operational practice.
郎咸梅
全球变暖情景下西北太平洋地区台风活动背景场气候变化的预估被引量:13
2010年
为了分析在全球变暖的情景下西北太平洋地区(WNP)可能发生的气候变化,从而为该地区台风活动的未来变化提供必要的背景信息,文中选取了18个参加CMIP3试验的全球海气耦合模式,考查了在SRES A2试验中21世纪末(2080—2099年)相对于20C3M试验中20世纪末(1980—1999年)对台风活动有重要影响的环境场包括海表面温度(SST)、纬向风的垂直切变(MWS)、海平面气压(SLP)、大气顶向外的长波辐射(OLR)和降水在WNP的变化情况。主要分析了多模式集合的结果以及环境场的变化在模式间的一致性。结果表明:到21世纪末,所有模式在西北太平洋区域SST都是一致的升高趋势,增幅在2℃以上,SST的变化是所有考虑的变量中在模式间一致性最好的,绝大部分区域信噪比都在4以上;降水在整个WNP区域也是一致增强的趋势,在赤道低纬度地区增幅较强,其变化在模式间的一致性较好,大部分区域18个模式中超过12个表现出降水增加的变化,在这些区域信噪比大都在0.6以上;SLP的变化特征主要表现为高低压系统的强度均为减弱的趋势,其中低压的减弱在模式间有着更好的一致性,大部分区域的信噪比都大于0.6;MWS和OLR在空间上没有一致的变化趋势,而且在不同的模式间变化的差异较大,大部分区域的信噪比都在0.3左右。但是在与台风活动有显著负相关的关键区内,大部分模式区域平均的MWS和OLR在SRES A2试验中都变小,多模式集合也是减弱的趋势。从SST、降水、关键区的MWS和OLR的分析来看,在全球变暖的情景下,环境场的变化可能是有利于台风活动的。但是目前关于环境场对于台风活动的影响和相互关系还缺乏足够的认识,环境场的变化对于台风活动会有怎样的具体影响还有待进一步深入分析。
张颖王会军
关键词:全球变暖SRESA2台风活动
The Hindcast of Winter and Spring Arctic and Antarctic Oscillation with the Coupled Climate Models被引量:1
2011年
This study evaluates the ability of the global coupled climate models in hindcasting the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). The results show that the models can well simulate the spatial distribution of AO with better results in winter than in spring. In the troposphere in spring, the simulation of AO on the whole is still relatively good with a comparatively high correlation with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The models can also well reproduce the spatial distribution of AAO throughout the year at all levels of the troposphere, and the spatial simulation is better at 850 hPa than at the surface. Although the simulation is better in winter than in other seasons, the seasonal variation is not so significant and the differences among different models are relatively smaU. In addition, the capability of the models for "predicting" the AO and the AAO index time series is limited, because only a few models can capture their observed interannual variability at the 95% significance level.
钱卓蕾王会军孙建奇
关键词:EOF
Evaluation and Analysis of RegCM3 Simulated Summer Rainfall over the Huaihe River Basin of China被引量:1
2011年
This study evaluates the ability of the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) version 3 Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) in simulating the summer rainfall amount and distribution and large-scale circulation over the Huaihe River basin of China. We conducted the simulation for the period of 1982-2001 and the wet year of 2003 to test the ensemble simulation capacity of RegCM3. First, by comparing the simulated rainfall amount and distribution against the observations, it is found that RegCM3 can reproduce the rainfall pattern and its annual variations. In addition, the simulated spatial patterns of 850-hPa wind and specific humidity fields are close to the observations, although the wind speed and humidity values are larger. Finally, the ensemble simulation of RegCM3 for summer 2003 failed to capture the spatial distribution and underestimated the magnitude of the precipitation anomalies, and the reasons are analyzed.
宗培书王会军
关键词:PRECIPITATION
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