Based on the statistics of all surface drifting buoys of 1978-2011 and Lagrangian tracers simulated from high quality ocean reanalysis currents,the impact times and strength of Fukushima nuclear pollution to the east coast of China and the west coast of America have been estimated.Under the circumstances of the radioactive pollutants drifting in the ocean surface,preliminary research results show that while the tracers took about 4 years to reach the west coast of USA,there are two types of tracers to carry out Fukushima nuclear pollutants to reach the east coast of China,corresponding to 1.5-year recirculation gyre transport and 3.5-year subtropical circulation transport.The distributions of the impact strength at these time scales are given according to the variation of relative number concentration with time combined with the decaying rate of radioactive matter.For example,starting from 1% at 1.5-year,of the initial level at the originating area of Fukushima nuclear pollution,the impact strength of Cesium-137 in the South China Sea continuously increases up to 3% by 4 years,while the impact strength of Cesium-137 in the west coast of America is as high as 4% due to the role of strong Kuroshio-extension currents as a major transport mechanism of nuclear pollutants for that area.
HAN GuiJunLI WeiFU HongLiZHANG XueFengWANG XiDongWU XinRongZHANG LianXin
A new regional ocean reanalysis over multiple decades （1958 2008） for the coastal waters of China and adjacent seas has been completed by the National Marine Data and Information Service （NMD[S） under the CORA （China Ocean ReAnalysis） project. Evaluations were performed on three aspects： （1） the improvement of general reanalysis quality; （2） eddy structures; and （3） decadal variability of sea surface height anomalies （SSHAs）. Results showed that the quality of the new reanalysis has been enhanced beyond ~40% （39% for temperature, 44% for salinity） in terms of the reduction of root mean squared errors （RMSEs） for which the reanalysis values were compared to observed values in the observational space. Compared to the trial version released to public in 2009, the new reanalysis is able to reproduce more detailed eddy structures as seen in satellite and in situ observations. EOF analysis of the reanalysis SSHAs showed that the new reanalysis reconstructs the leading modes of SSHAs much better than the old version. These evaluations suggest that the new CORA regional reanalysis represents a much more useful dataset for the community of the coastal waters of China and adjacent seas.
Based on the statistics of surface drifter data of 1979-2011 and the simulation of nuclear pollutant particulate move- merits simulated using high quality ocean reanalysis surface current dataset, the transport pathways and impact strength of Fuku-shima nuclear pollutants in the North Pacific have been estimated. The particulates are used to increase the sampling size and en- hance the representativeness of statistical results. The trajectories of the drifters and particulates are first examined to identify typical drifting pathways. The results show that there are three types of transport paths for nuclear pollutants at the surface： 1） most pollutant particles move eastward and are carried by the Kuroshio and Kuroshio-extension currents and reach the east side of the North Pacific after about 3.2-3.9 years; 2） some particles travel with the subtropical circulation branch and reach the east coast of China after about 1.6 years according to one drifter trajectory and about 3.6 years according to particulate trajectories; 3） a little of them travel with local, small scale circulations and reach the east coast of China after about 1.3-1.8 years. Based on the par-tieulates, the impact strength of nuclear pollutants at these time scales can be estimated according to the temporal variations of relative concentration combined with the radioactive decay rate. For example, Cesium-137, carried by the strong North Pacific current, mainly accumulates in the eastern North Pacific and its impact strength is 4% of the initial level at the originating Fuku- shima area after 4 years. Due to local eddies, Cesium-137 in the western North Pacific is 1% of the initial pollutant level after 1.5 years and continuously increases to 3% after 4 years. The vertical movement of radioactive pollutants is not taken into account in the present study, and the estimation accuracy would be improved by considering three-dimensional flows.
FU HongliLI WeiZHANG XuefengHAN GuijunWANG XidongWU XinrongZHANG Lianxin
The first version of a global ocean reanalysis over multiple decades （1979-2008） has been completed by the National Marine Data and Information Service within the China Ocean Reanalysis （CORA） project. The global ocean model employed is based upon the ocean general circulation model of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. A sequential data assimilation scheme within the framework of 3D variational （3DVar） analysis, called multi-grid 3DVar, is implemented in 3D space for retrieving multiple-scale observational information. Assimilated oceanic observations include sea level anomalies （SLAs） from multi-altimeters, sea surface temperatures （SSTs） from remote sensing satellites, and in-situ temperature/salinity profiles. Evaluation showed that compared to the model simulation, the annual mean heat content of the global reanalysis is significantly approaching that of World Ocean Atlas 2009 （WOA09） data. The quality of the global temperature climatology was found to be comparable with the product of Simple Ocean Data Assimilation （SODA）, and the major ENSO events were reconstructed. The global and Atlantic meridional overturning circulations showed some similarity as SODA, although significant differences were found to exist. The analysis of temperature and salinity in the current version has relatively larger errors at high latitudes and improvements are ongoing in an updated version. CORA was found to provide a simulation of the subsurface current in the equatorial Pacific with a correlation coefficient beyond about 0.6 compared with the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean （TAO） mooring data. The mean difference of SLAs between altimetry data and CORA was less than 0.1 m in most years.
Oceanic front, especially Kuroshio front, is an important phenomenon that is of great significance for scientific research, national economy and military uses. However, Kuroshio front to the east of Taiwan （KFETW in brief） was rare investigated. In this study, reanalysis method is used to study the KFETW＇s temporal and spatial variability and frontogenesis mechanism. It is found that although surface thermal front to the east of Taiwan is not obvious, there is an all-year strong Kuroshio thermal front called KFETW under the surface. The KFETW is connected to the south section of Kuroshio front in the East China Sea （KFECS in brief） and distributes along the east coastline of Taiwan. The KFETW has multi-scale variation feature. It has significant seasonal signal, and its intensity and width reach their maximum in summer. By using the reanalysis results obtained from this study, frontogenesis and changing mechanisms of the KFETW are discussed. It is found that both the Kuroshio and up-welling to the east of Taiwan can affect this front, and the up-welling may be the predominant factor in KFETW＇s frontogenesis and maintenance mechanism.
