为探索高速公路出口事故发生的关键诱因,依托美国佛罗里达州24条高速公路上405个出口匝道的历史事故和道路交通数据,验证了出口匝道事故服从于对数正态分布.以匝道交通量、匝道长度和设计一致性(分别以平均半径、曲率变化率、运行速度差和运行速度变化率度量)为解释变量,以2004—2006年间事故数为因变量,建立了4个泊松对数正态事故预测模型,其中以速度变化率表征设计一致性的事故预测模型具有最好的拟合度.基于最优拟合度模型的弹性分析表明,运行速度变化率及匝道长度为关键因素;基于安全考虑,出口匝道速度变化率宜控制在20%以内,出口匝道极限最小长度不宜小于200 m,一般最小长度不宜小于400 m.
Bicycle-sharing system is considered as a green option to provide a better connection between scenic spots and nearby metro/bus stations. Allocating and optimizing the layout of bicycle-sharing system inside the scenic spot and around its influencing area are focused on. It is found that the terrain, land use, nearby transport network and scenery point distribution have significant impact on the allocation of bicycle-sharing system. While the candidate bicycle-sharing stations installed at the inner scenic points, entrances/exits and metro stations are fixed, the ones installed at bus-stations and other passenger concentration buildings are adjustable. Aiming at minimizing the total cycling distance and overlapping rate, an optimization model is proposed and solved based on the idea of cluster concept and greedy heuristic. A revealed preference/stated preference （RP/SP） combined survey was conducted at Xuanwu Lake in Nanjing, China, to get an insight into the touring trip characteristics and bicycle-sharing tendency. The results reveal that 39.81% visitors accept a cycling distance of 1-3 km and 62.50% respondents think that the bicycle-sharing system should charge an appropriate fee. The sttrvey indicates that there is high possibility to carry out a bicycle-sharing system at Xuanwu Lake. Optimizing the allocation problem cluster by cluster rather than using an exhaustive search method significantly reduces the computing amount from O（2^43） to O（43 2）. The 500 m-radius-coverage rate for the alternative optimized by 500 m-radius-cluster and 800 m-radius-cluster is 89.2% and 68.5%, respectively. The final layout scheme will provide decision makers engineering guidelines and theoretical support.
