This study examines the effectiveness of China's National Poor Counties(NPC)program,a decentralized anti-poverty initiative,by analyzing five rounds of individual-level panel data from 1988 to 2008.The impact of two waves of the NPC program(1994 and 2001)is evaluated utilizing a panel fixed-effects regression model.The results indicate substantial positive effects,with residents in NPC counties experiencing a 47 percent income increase,3.1 percent higher employment rates,and a 5.7 percent rise in household expenditure from 1988 to 2008,in comparison with non-NPC counties.Notably,the program benefited vulnerable populations,dispelling concerns about"elite capture."The study also reveals that evolving policy focus has played a pivotal role in sustaining the effects of the program over time.The 1994 round prioritized low-skilled employment,and the 2001 wave emphasized productivity enhancement through skills development.These findings highlight the continued efficacy of decentralized anti-povertyefforts.
This paper complements the relatively few existing studies on the macroeconomic effects of poverty in developing countries, by investigating the effect of poverty volatility on tax revenue instability. The empirical analysis has been conducted using an unbalanced panel dataset of 97 developing countries covering the period of 1980–2017 and primarily the two-step system generalized method of moments estimator. Findings have revealed that least developed countries tend to experience a positive tax revenue instability effect of poverty volatility, while poverty volatility results in lower tax revenue instability in relatively advanced countries. Additionally, poverty volatility dampens the instability of tax revenue when poverty rates are low, and enhances it when countries face a greater extent of external shocks. From a policy perspective, this analysis shows that it would be essential for policymakers to dampen the volatility of poverty rates (notably in countries with high poverty rates) if they were to ensure the stability of tax revenue or reduce its instability, given the adverse effect of tax revenue instability on economic growth.