Ocean waves are the core environmental elements affecting the movements and structure design of ships. Statistical analysis of wave parameters is the basis for the establishment of long-term ship environmental adaptability prediction model. The observations from coastal stations, buoys, altimeters and volunteer ships that cover from 1993 to 2011 were interpolated into miller Ion-lat grids by using bilinear method and the analytical fields of ocean waves were given. By using optimal interpolation, the analysis wave fields were assimilated into the WAVEWATCH III （WW3） simulation results. From the assimilated results, the wave rose statistics, the wave height of muitiyear return period and the extreme 2-D wave spectrum are related to the ship seakeeping were calculated. Finally, the wave statistics in China offshore were analyzed in detail.
利用CCSM3(Community Climate System Model version 3)气候系统模式模拟20世纪海平面变化,在IPCC SRES A2(IPCC,2001)情景假设下预测21世纪全球海平面长期趋势变化。模拟显示20世纪海平面上升约4.0cm,且存在0.004 8mm/a2的加速度,这个结果仅为热盐比容的贡献。在A2情景假设下,21世纪海平面上升存在很大的区域特征,呈纬向带状分布;总体上北冰洋上升大,南大洋高纬度海区上升小,大西洋上升值比太平洋的大;整个21世纪全球平均比容海平面上升了约30cm,且呈加速上升的趋势。同时发现,中深层水温度和盐度变化对区域比容海平面变化具有重要贡献。北太平洋增暖主要集中在上层700m以内,而北大西洋的增暖可达2 500m的深度,南大洋南极绕极流海区热盐变化则是发生在整个深度。
